Urban seismology ... for earthquake-proof cities

Natural disasters usually hinder the achievement of objectives development linked with environment, education or economy.

Earthquakes stand out from other natural hazards : they account for around 15% of natural disasters worldwide, but are responsible for 78% of fatalities and 45% of economic losses (source EMDAT). Due to the global growth in population and the concentration of wealth and infrastructures in space-limited urban areas, even moderate earthquakes (M<6.5) contribute significantly to the increase in global economic losses, and may cause a smaller, but still unacceptable, number of casualties.

The existence of low-probability but high-consequence earthquakes (LPHC) illustrates the cognitive bias that sometimes leads stakeholders (decision-makers, operators...) to the erroneous conclusion that exceptional earthquake will not occur. This has a negative impact on the protection and regulation, and hence the resilience.
However, hazards are natural and losses are political : decisions made and actions triggered are just as important as the hazard and/or vulnerability components, and if appropriated may reduce the consequences by a factor of 3 (See Sendai Framework). Stakeholders, informed by irreproachable scientific assessments, must be in a position to aware the risk in the best possible way, in order to make effective and appropriate decisions.
Focusing on urban areas must be a priority to create the safe city of tomorrow (Seismic-Proof City), based on scientific research focused on 4 essential modules : seismic hazard, vulnerability/exposure, consequences and decision-making.

References

• Benson, C., and Twigg, J. (2004). Measuring Mitigation : Methodologies for Assessing Natural Hazard Risks and the Net Benefits of Mitigation – A Scoping Study. Synthesis Report IFRC/ProVention Consortium. Geneva, 154.
• Guéguen, P., Yepes, H., & Riedel, I. (2016). On the value of earthquake scenario : The Kathmandu recent lesson. Frontiers in Built Environment, 1, 26.
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Suggested background music
David Bowie - Suffragette City (1972)
Grandaddy - Now it’s on (2003)