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A predictive model for analyzing liability in the event of an earthquake
A new approach developed by researchers helps identify how risk prevention and management decisions can influence the extent of damage.
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Driven by climate change, governments’ legal obligations to manage foreseeable damages from natural hazards are expanding. Earthquakes are a particularly complex example. In the event of a disaster, establishing responsibility relies on the causal link between the triggering event and the damage incurred. Beyond the classical definition of risk based on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, policy decisions regarding prevention and preparedness directly influence this causal link, and therefore the responsibility of the actors involved.
However, numerous scientific, legal, and political challenges still limit the ability to assess these losses and damages in court. To date, there is no clearly established model that a court could rely on to determine whether certain actors could have done more to reduce the consequences of an earthquake.
To address this gap, a recent study conducted at ISTerre, published in Nature Sustainability, proposes a predictive model for assessing responsibility in the event of an earthquake. Rather than focusing solely on the natural hazard itself, this model examines the interaction between the magnitude of damages, the preparedness and resources of authorities, and the decisions, or omissions, of the various stakeholders.
However, numerous scientific, legal, and political challenges still limit the ability to assess these losses and damages in court. To date, there is no clearly established model that a court could rely on to determine whether certain actors could have done more to reduce the consequences of an earthquake.
To address this gap, a recent study conducted at ISTerre, published in Nature Sustainability, proposes a predictive model for assessing responsibility in the event of an earthquake. Rather than focusing solely on the natural hazard itself, this model examines the interaction between the magnitude of damages, the preparedness and resources of authorities, and the decisions, or omissions, of the various stakeholders.
Inspired by attribution science, which is used to assess how human actions influence extreme climate events, this model aims to identify the "non-natural" factors that can amplify the consequences of an earthquake and over which stakeholders had the ability to act. By quantifying these relationships, it provides a framework to help courts and decision-makers evaluate responsibility and accountability, while also paving the way for more advanced legal tools.
The flip side of better assessing the impact of actions, or inactions, is the potential expansion of legal obligations for governments, companies, and other actors to prevent or limit foreseeable damage. The goal is clear : strengthen strategies to reduce human and economic consequences.
The flip side of better assessing the impact of actions, or inactions, is the potential expansion of legal obligations for governments, companies, and other actors to prevent or limit foreseeable damage. The goal is clear : strengthen strategies to reduce human and economic consequences.
Figure 1. The figure compares the average human losses caused by earthquakes and other natural hazards between 1900 and 2023, by country and according to their Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). It shows the distribution of losses and highlights that fewer countries are heavily affected by earthquakes than by other natural disasters.
The full study is published in : Nature Sustainability
* This news was originally published by Université Gustave Eiffel.
* This news was originally published by Université Gustave Eiffel.
References :
Marjanac, S., Patton, L. & Thornton, J. (2017) Acts of God, human influence and litigation. Nat. Geosci. 10, 616–619.
Setzer, J. & Higham, C. (2022) Global Trends in Climate Change Litigation : 2022 Snapshot. London : Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment & Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, LSE.
Heatwole, N. & Rose, A. (2013) A reduced-form rapid economic consequence estimating model : Application to property damage from US earthquakes. Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. 4, 20–32.
Scientific contacts :
- P. Guéguen - researcher at UGE at the Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre-OSUG, CNRS / IRD / UGA / Univ. Savoie Mont-Blanc / Univ. Gustave Eiffel)
- C. Dollet - PhD student at ISTerre (ISTerre-OSUG, CNRS / IRD / UGA / Univ. Savoie Mont-Blanc / Univ. Gustave Eiffel)